Is Something Rotten In Ankara’s Mayoral Election? A Very Preliminary Statistical Analysis

Bu metnin Turkcesini asagida bulabilirsiniz. / Scroll down for Turkish translation of this.

Erik Meyersson

(Note: This post may get updated as additional information on Ankara’s election comes in.)

Note 2: This post has now been updated with data from Istanbul – see here)

Having seen tweets on numerous alleged voting irregularities in Turkey and thanks to Twitter user @erenyanik I came across this CHP/STS dataset of voting data in the Greater Municipality of Ankara, one of the tightly contested (less than a percentage point in the vote share) mayor elections between Melih Gökçek and Mansur Yavaş. The dataset includes 12,230 ballot boxes across 1,682 voting locations in 25 districts in Ankara. I didn’t collect the data itself and therefore this analysis should be taken as highly preliminary.

It all started when @erenyanik posted this picture plotting ballot box level AKP and CHP vote shares against the turnout rate for the Ankara mayor race. Several of the ballot boxes revealed turnout rates above 100 percent, which is strange, but also that…

View original post 1,125 more words


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